December 2, 2003

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: WILLIAM KRISTOL & GARY SCHMITT

SUBJECT: A Dangerous New Policy Toward Taiwan?

Senior Bush Administration officials may be engineering a dramatic and
dangerous shift in American policy toward Taiwan as a gift to the
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who is visiting the United States next week.
There are two elements of this proposed policy change, both of which
favor Beijing at the expense of democratic Taiwan, and one of which may
actually encourage Beijing to take military action against Taiwan. Both
policy changes are being pushed by the staff of the National Security
Council over the objections, we understand, of both the Departments of
State and Defense.

First, according to numerous government sources, the senior director for
Asian affairs at the National Security Council, James Moriarty, and Doug
Paal, the de facto U.S. ambassador to Taiwan, are urging President Bush
to declare, privately and perhaps publicly, that the United States
opposes Taiwan's independence. This would be a significant change in
America's so-called "One-China Policy," a change very much in Beijing's
favor.

Until now, the American position on Taiwan's independence has been
agnostic. American presidents have said they do not support independence
but have also insisted that the cross-Strait issue be settled peacefully
and by common agreement of the two sides. The point was that no solution
should be imposed on either side. It was also to leave open the
possibility that both sides might agree on independence, as indeed might
occur were mainland China ever to become democratic (just as Moscow let
go of Ukraine after the fall of communism in Russia). If the Bush
Administration changes its policy, it will place the United States in
opposition to Taiwanese independence even under that scenario. Above
all, however, if the administration makes this change, it will strike a
severe blow against the vibrant Taiwanese democracy in a kow-tow to
Beijing. After the President's recent stirring remarks in favor of
democracy worldwide, this move against Taiwan's democracy would be a
shameful betrayal of what seemed to be the President's core principle in
foreign policy.

Moriarty's second proposal is even more worrying. He proposes the United
States declare that it will not defend Taiwan if Beijing launches a
military attack on the island in response to a "provocation," i.e., some
action or statement by Taiwan that Beijing determines moves in the
direction of independence. This proposal, if adopted by the
administration, could prove disastrous on several grounds. First of all,
it would appear to run counter to the Taiwan Relations Act passed by
Congress in 1979. Indeed, it may constitute an effort by the Bush
administration in effect to repeal that law by executive fiat. The Act
makes it U.S. policy that there should be a peaceful resolution of the
dispute between China and Taiwan. But, by suggesting that there may be
"legitimate" grounds for China to take offense, this new declaration
would condone the very action the law intends to prevent. This would be
all the more remarkable given that less than two years ago President
Bush reaffirmed the American commitment to Taiwan by declaring that the
United States would do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan.

Second, this proposed policy shift would make war in the Strait more
likely, not less. If the United States tells Beijing that it will not
defend Taiwan in the event of a "provocation," this can only serve as an
inducement to Beijing to threaten to use force, or perhaps actually to
use force, on any occasion that Beijing deems Taiwan's behavior
"provocative." After all, what constitutes a "provocation"? Beijing
believes Taiwan's current status of de facto independence is already
unacceptable.

Of course, the reason behind the latest maneuverings within the Bush
Administration is the recent decision by the present government of
Taiwan to hold national referenda on a variety of issues this spring.
Beijing fears that Taiwan may eventually decide to hold a referendum on
subjects pertaining to independence. China has therefore denounced all
referenda on any subject as "provocative." They have even warned darkly
of possible "consequences" should Taiwan go ahead with the referenda. In
addition, senior Chinese officials have repeatedly demanded that the
Bush Administration use American pressure to force Taiwan to abandon all
referendum plans.

It appears that the Bush Administration has at least partly caved to
Beijing's pressure. Moriarty recently traveled to Taipei to deliver a
stern warning against holding any referendum on any subject. Now he
wants the administration to offer assurances to Premier Wen that the
United States will indeed oppose referenda in Taiwan. This means, in
turn, that the administration will effectively be agreeing with Beijing
that such referenda constitute a "provocation." So what happens when
Taiwan goes ahead and holds its referendum this spring, as it surely will?

We hope the Bush Administration will pull back from this catastrophic
change of course. The Clinton Administration bent to China on the issue
of Taiwan as well, but never as dangerously as senior Bush
Administration officials are now proposing. Nor so immorally. Taiwan is
a thriving democracy. The Beijing government remains a tyranny. Will the
Bush administration stifle democracy in Taiwan -- actually demanding
that it not hold popular votes -- to curry favor with the dictatorship?