Published on December 05, 2003 in the student newsaper at Columbia University
Dangerous Straits
by MELANIE LEE

What is the most important and sensitive issue in the United States-China relationship right now? A quick poll around Wien 8 yields these answers: economics, trade, exports, trade, tariffs, trade.
While economics is a significant issue and possibly the U.S.'s greatest concern, the real answer to this question may surprise you. In a Nov. 21 Washington Post interview, China's Premier, Wen Jiabao, declared the most important and sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations now is Taiwan.

China has made substantial progress in recent decades, perhaps best symbolized by its successful bid for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Its economy has tripled in size within the past 20 years, and many countries are eyeing China's 1.3 billion people as a potential market. Furthermore, the Chinese leadership has recently been more receptive to reforming the country's flawed legal system, protecting human rights, and developing democracy.

Yet despite all this apparent progress, China's policy towards Taiwan has remained archaic and belligerent. Asked about Taiwan, Wen answered with his usual cross-strait clichés: "reuniting with the motherland," "peaceful reunification," "one country, two systems."

The impression China wants to create with these clichés is that Taiwan (the Republic of China) is a part of China (the People's Republic of China). What needs to be emphasized is that this is a matter of opinion, not fact. Under international law, Taiwan is its own state. The PRC and ROC governments are entirely separate from one another. While China has been gradually creeping towards liberalism, Taiwan has spent the last 50 years building a successful economy, modern society, a full democracy, and its own identity. Taiwan has its own popularly elected president, Chen Shui-bian, its own parliament, and its own territorial sovereignty. In another words, Taiwan is what China one day hopes to be.

What obscures this understanding is Taiwan's lack of international recognition. Only 31 countries in the world recognize the ROC despite its sovereignty under international law. The other countries, like the U.S., fear the consequences of recognizing Taiwan: a furious political and economic response from China.
Despite Taiwan's economic importance as a major global investor and exporter, and its modern health systems and medical contributions, Taiwan has been denied membership in the United Nations and its affiliate organizations, notably the World Health Organization.

Taiwan is currently in an awkward status quo. International recognition generally predicates a state's de facto sovereignty. Therefore, while Taiwan has all the attributes of a sovereign nation, it is internationally subsumed by the PRC. The PRC's military dominance is obvious, and periodic threats of military action suppress any assertion of Taiwan's sovereignty. Taiwan's status is thus extremely confusing. It is neither independent nor part of China. The Taiwanese themselves are ambivalent. To assert independence is to risk war; to become a part of China is to risk 50 years--and possibly a future--of de jure sovereignty and democracy.

Two hot topics in Taiwan now are the rewriting of its constitution and the passage of referendum laws. Wen Jiabao sees these two movements, both advocated by President Chen Shui-bian, as confrontational acts. "[China] will not sit by and do nothing faced with provocative activities aimed at splitting the motherland," he said.

These words are fraught with irony. Currently there are 496 Chinese missiles pointed toward Taiwan. As newspapers periodically report, China has made it clear that it is unafraid of war. The rewriting of Taiwan's outdated constitution and referendum legislation are characterized by China as provocative, yet they are perhaps two of the most democratic activities a country can partake in. China claims that it respects Taiwan's democracy. This is clearly false, as Wen's statements and the missiles stationed across the Taiwan Strait prove. His comments are simply veiled threats.

Premier Wen will be visiting New York City this weekend and Washington D.C. later this month. Upon his visit, the Bush administration is expected to reiterate the three No's adopted by the Clinton Administration: No two Chinas (a.k.a one China, two systems); No international membership for Taiwan; No independence. What the U.S. government fears more than anything is change in the status quo. The U.S. has a long history of defending the security of Taiwan. A change would force the American government to make a decision.

This month, student papers across the nation will feature editorials like this one. I write this article not because I am a Taiwanese American, but because the future of Taiwan resounds in the world. Taiwan, in all likelihood, will maintain the status quo. But if the status quo is rocked, it is foreseeable that Taiwan will be forsaken. So will its cherished sovereignty, democracy, and right to self-determination.

The author is a Columbia College junior majoring in East Asian languages and cultures.